Prop Firm Challenge Calculator

Your real odds of passing a two-phase challenge with your actual edge — and what getting funded will really cost in fees. Monte Carlo simulation, rules and limits stated, nothing sold.

Monte Carlo: 30,000 simulated challenges per phase — figures wobble a few tenths of a percent between recalculations. That wobble is honesty, not a bug.

Read the last line again

A trader with no edge at all — a coin flipper — still passes a meaningful share of challenges: variance alone carries some accounts to the target before the drawdown catches them. Every one of those passes is a fee banked by the firm and a "funded trader" for the marketing page, and their eventual blow-up costs the firm little, because most firms pay from fee income, not from real trading capital. That is the business model: the product is the challenge, not the funding. The maths of who profits is the same as the signal-seller economy — our free lesson the predator economy walks through it.

What the model assumes — and why your true odds are at or below these

Each trade is an independent bet at your win rate and reward:risk, risking a fixed percentage of the starting balance; a day that reaches the daily-loss limit fails the challenge, as does breaching the total drawdown; hitting the target passes the phase. "No time limit" is simulated as 400 trading days — beyond that an attempt counts as a fail. Deliberately excluded, because every one of them lowers your real odds: trailing-drawdown variants, consistency rules, news-trading and weekend-holding bans, slippage and spread beyond your R:R, the psychological difference of trading a challenge versus a demo, and the entire payout stage — passing is not the same as being paid. If these numbers look bad, the truth is slightly worse.

Know your real win rate before trusting any of this — twenty trades prove nothing. Check the streak your win rate promises with the losing streak calculator — a normal streak at 1% risk is a third of a 5% daily limit; at 3% risk it is a failed challenge. And if you have a genuine edge, run the arithmetic on simply compounding your own account with the expectancy calculator before paying anyone for the privilege of a drawdown rule.