Expectancy Calculator

The only number that says whether a method makes money: what the average trade pays after wins, losses and costs. Works in pips or money — just use the same unit throughout.

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) − cost. Our own live system runs TP 25 / SL 40 — with those exits its break-even win rate is 61.5%, a number we publish and must keep beating on the record. One warning before you trust a positive result: expectancy measured on a handful of trades is noise — twenty trades prove nothing. Full lesson: expectancy, the only number that matters.